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An Investor and counsellor in Financial Market

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Who in their right mind would want to visit Dubai?- By Alex Proud.

Sterile and morally destitute Dubai shows what happens when you chase heavy pay cheques at the cost of all else, says Alex Proud. London, take note ..

"Bigger, better, higher, glitzier, nastier: Dubai is like an entire city designed by Donald Trump"
Alex Proud
Skyscrapers and cranes: what's to like?

As the days draw in and the nights get colder, my thoughts turn to Dubai.
I hasten to add my thoughts do not turn to Dubai (or DOO-Boyyyy as many of its fans call it) as a potential vacation destination for the Proud family. Rather, I find myself thinking of it as an eternal, enduring mystery. Namely, why anyone would want to visit this ghastly place?
Dubai is considered to be the most 'Western' part of the Middle East
Dubai is considered to be the most 'Western' part of the Middle East .
It’s not just the onset of autumn either. The other reason I’ve been thinking about Dubai is that the Saudis are getting all sorts of bad press at the moment. I despise Saudi Arabia. It’s a hideous, brutal, oil-rich theocracy that exports terrorism. But you know what? It really doesn’t really pretend to be anything else. You know where you stand with Saudi Arabia.
Dubai, on the other hand, markets itself as fun in the sun, a kind of Las Vegas on the Persian Gulf. Yet it has far more in common with Saudi Arabia than you’d imagine. Before you say, “But Alex, Dubai is the forward looking part of the Middle East that wants to engage with the world,” I invite you to consider the case of Marte Deborah Dalelv.
Dalelv is a Norwegian fashion designer who was on a business trip in Dubai in 2013. During an evening out, she was raped. She later reported her attack to the police. The authorities’ reaction? Ms Dalelv was charged with perjury, having extramarital sex and drinking alcohol. She received a 16-month jail sentence.
There was an international outcry over the case, and eventually Ms Dalelv was pardoned by Dubai’s rulers, almost certainly because of the bad PR. Except it wasn’t “bad” PR. It was accurate PR, and it made Dubai look like what it is: a nasty little theocracy in a shopping mall.
This is the first big reason I struggle to understand the “Destination: Dubai” mentality. Why would you want take your holiday in a country that locks up rape victims when it thinks no one is looking? Why, for that matter, would you want to take your holiday in a place which jailed a man for having a piece of dope on the sole of his shoe so small as to be invisible to naked eye? Why would you holiday in a country that detained a man for having poppy seeds from a bread roll on his clothes?
So Dubai is a fabulous alternative to Spain or Greece until you fall foul of one the hundreds of inhumane, hardline laws, at which point you get a short, sharp lesson in why most European legal systems are actually pretty great.
My problem with this is that Dubai wants to have it both ways. Either you’re a playground for tourists or you’re a deeply conservative Islamic state. I’m sorry, but you can’t be Ibiza and Saudi Arabia at the same time.
A rare mist fills Dubai's business district, among the more familiar sight of skyscrapers and construction projects. 
But let’s move on, as there are so many other reasons to hate Dubai. In fact, I’d find it pretty easy to hate the place even if, legally speaking, it was as liberal as Amsterdam.
For starters, it has an awful climate. It’s horrendously hot and humid for nine months of the year. It has close to zero real culture unless you count its unique take on Sharia Shopping ‘n’ Starbucks. It is an environmental Chernobyl filled with SUVs and air-conditioning up to and including an indoor ski slope. And it has some of the worst upscale architecture in the world. Bigger, better, higher, glitzier, nastier: it’s like an entire city designed by Donald Trump.
Of course, all this architecture doesn’t build itself. And the pampered Emirati elite certainly aren’t going to get their hands dirty. So they use guest workers from places like Pakistan and Nepal who they treat like disposable slaves. Assuming you can read a newspaper or, failing that, watch TV, it cannot have escaped your notice that Dubai’s masters appear not to care if these people live or die. If they’re female they get to be maids which means considerably less chance of dying of heatstroke and far more chance of being physically or sexually abused by your employer. Dubai!
When I read about conditions for guest workers in the UAE, I am genuinely reminded of US slavery. To treat people like this, you can’t view them as human. I’m sure there must be Emiratis who realise how dreadful this is, but clearly there are those who literally never think, “If I’d been born 1000 miles east of here, in Pakistan, I’d be scrubbing toilets for 16 hours a day.”
Construction workers in Dubai often hail from India or Pakistan
Construction workers in Dubai often hail from India or Pakistan.
All this means Dubai is like a smorgasbord of the despicable. A legal system that jails rape victims. Modern slavery? Ghastly bad taste. An utter contempt for the environment. A hideous fusion of hyper-capitalism and repressive theocracy? I can only assume that if you enjoy holidaying in Dubai, you are the kind of person who weighs all these up and then shrugs and says, “But on the other hand, there is really great shopping.”
I’d always lazily assumed that all this meant that Dubai catered for a relatively uneducated, ill-informed, downmarket demographic. But in fact,it’s the second most expensive city in the world to stay in after Geneva. And then it hit me. You know exactly who Dubai man and woman are. They’re a certain brassy subset of the middle-classes. The kind of people who love expensive mock-Georgian new-builds. The kind of people who drive SUVs with personalised plates. They have good jobs and they’re successful, but they probably don’t have many books on their shelves.
If I struggle to understand why people visit Dubai, I am left truly baffled as to why anyone would want to live there. So I asked around and spoke to an acquaintance who’d spent a year there. Is it, I asked, one of those places, I asked, that’s a bit awful to visit, but actually OK nice to live in. She laughed and said: “There are two kinds of expat in Dubai. The first kind arrives and, after six weeks they realise it’s awful and that they’ve made a big mistake.”
“And the second kind?” I asked.
She shook her head, “For them it’s much worse. They like it.”
Here is where I make a confession. I have only been to Dubai once – and that was when I had a three-hour layover on my way to a far more pleasant destination. I never left the airport. But, actually, I don’t think this matters at all. It’s not necessary to spend a week in Dubai to know that it represents the very worst of East and West.
You don’t have to large it at the Jumeirah Beach Hotel to understand that human rights don’t extend to guest workers from the Indian subcontinent. You don’t need to spend 20,000 Dirhams in the world’s biggest shopping mall to know that journalists in the UAE practice “politeness.” Besides, as my friend said, “If you’ve seen Dubai Airport, then you’ve seen Dubai.”
Luckily, these days, you don’t have to go to Dubai to get a feel for the place. Because, it seems, we are building a simulacrum of Dubai in London.
When you cross Vauxhall bridge from Chelsea, you see St George Wharf in all its glory. It's a development of shiny towers that are at once incredibly expensive and very cheap looking. They’re not for the likes of you either. They’re for rich foreign investors, some of whom no doubt come from the UAE. In time, I’m sure they’ll be surrounded by expensive chain stores and pricey but not very good restaurants. It’ll be Dubai and grey skies. Of course, it’s not like Dubai in the sense that Vauxhall is still a centre for London’s gay pubs and clubs. But no matter, I’m sure that in a few years’ time, gentrification will drive them out.
It’s a warning to London. When all you care about is money, eventually you get Dubai.
But back to the real Dubai, the place of oppressive heat and censorship and towers built by slaves and vile consumerism ... And I’ll try and end on a positive note. What can I say I like about Dubai? OK, there is one good thing about Dubai. It keeps most of the people who like Dubai in one place.
If you’re on holiday in Dubai, you won’t be on holiday where I am.

Friday, October 30, 2015

5 Myths about U.S. government debt.

POSITION PORTFOLIOS TO WITHSTAND MANAGEABLE HEADWINDS RELATED TO THE FEDERAL DEBT.



Yahoo_images_5 myths govt debt_r3

As we approach a rising rate environment, the scale of U.S. federal debt has some investors concerned about the sustainability of government finances in the coming years. In this article we consider the most common myths about the government’s debt and discuss how investors can position their portfolios to withstand what we believe are manageable headwinds related to the federal debt burden.
Myth 1: The U.S. will default on its debt
Although much hype surrounds the possibility of a U.S. debt default, the likelihood is infinitesimally small.
One of the reasons the U.S. has been—and continues to be—a traditional safe haven for global investors is that investors know very well that the U.S. has nearly unlimited taxing power and a huge asset base. The federal government could—if needed—force liquidation of these assets to pay its entire stock of debt nearly 10 times over before defaulting. This is before even considering increasing taxes on the private sector.
Myth 2: The U.S. debt is out of control
The U.S. debt is at somewhat elevated levels, but the current debt-to-GDP ratio is quite manageable.
In absolute terms, U.S. government debt, measured as total debt held by the public, is $13 trillion—a record high (as of June 30, 2015). The debt-to-GDP ratio stands at approximately 74%; an elevated level, but hardly a record. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a non-partisan government organization, projects only a slight increase in net debt as a percentage of GDP—from 74% in 2015 to 77% in 2025.
Considering government debt from the vantage point of the annual federal budget, the federal budget deficit has declined steadily from 9.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2009 to an estimated 2.7% of GDP in 2015. It is forecasted to hover near 3% for the next few years, as shown in the chart.
Chart-2015_8_25_r2

Myth 3: Rising rates will explode the debt
While rising rates would certainly cause the government’s net interest expense—its cost to service the debt—to increase, it won’t cause it to explode.
Any rise in interest rates would almost assuredly be the result of a healthier economy and inflation expectations. This matters a lot, because if both GDP and the debt rise in lockstep, the debt-to-GDP ratio does not actually grow. In addition, much of the U.S. government debt that was issued in the past seven years was done so at record low rates. This cheap debt has locked in coupon payments, which will not increase as interest rates rise.
Myth 4: The budget problem cannot be fixed
The truth is that the budget problems facing our country are not difficult to solve from a mathematical perspective. The bigger challenge is finding the political will and the level of compromise and collaboration that would be required to make progress.
For example, according to a 2015 report from the Medicare Trustees, the trust fund supporting a significant part of Medicare costs is projected to be depleted by 2030. However, the present value shortfall over the next 75 years could be entirely covered if Medicare payroll taxes were increased by just 68bps, from 2.9% to 3.6%. Changes in the age of eligibility or the amount of benefits received are other feasible tweaks to handle the shortfall.
Myth 5: The biggest risk to investors is the federal debt
As the preceding arguments have made clear, the federal debt is far from the biggest risk facing investors. Nevertheless, investors should establish a plan to address a few manageable debt-related investment headwinds. These include:
• Solving for growth: For investors, getting an investment portfolio to grow in an era of slower overall economic and profit growth is an important consideration. While specific debt levels and their associated costs remain hotly contested issues among economists, it stands to reason that at a certain point, government spending on productive endeavors like investment spending on physical capital can be crowded out by increasing net interest expense.
• The income drought: Depressed interest rates are not directly related to the debt burden, but are rather a knock-on effect from slower growth and lower inflation. One of the serious consequences of low interest rates is that the traditional sources of investment income earned by investors and retirees have all but dried up. We do not expect interest rates to revert to pre-2008 levels anytime soon. For investors, it remains critically important to have a diversified approach to generating income without being overly concentrated in any single asset class.
Investment implications
Although none of these factors would necessarily mandate a change in core asset allocation strategy, they do suggest tilting to equities (and, in particular, growth-oriented equities), looking at alternative sources of income to counter low rates and utilizing tax-efficient strategies, where applicable.
Investors should not be distracted by wild and misguided prophesies of debt Armageddon. They should instead focus on working with their financial advisors on topics relevant to their own financial plans, such as getting their money to grow despite a slower growth environment, or cobbling together a more diversified stream of income in a low-yield world.

Nifty...














Sell Nifty at 8130-8165-8200
Stop-loss 8225

Thursday, October 29, 2015

America’s startups are changing what it means to own a company.

American capitalism

Reinventing the deal


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ATTENDING a baby-shower is not an obvious means of contributing to the vigour of American capitalism. But when thrown for one of 24 investors in Julia Jacobson’s small startup, NMRKT, which enables boutiques and small manufacturers to create appealing electronic marketplaces for their products in half an hour, it is vital. Since 2013 the company has amassed 150 clients and is now considering its fourth round of financing. Attending social events helps Ms Jacobson and her equivalent at other startups to take stock of what investors want. This enables them to confront an enduring inefficiency of the market: aligning the interests of investors and owners.
Investors’ opinions matter hugely to young firms like Ms Jacobson’s. Judgments abound and diverge on the value of a startup without the ability to test it in an open market. One investor pushed Ms Jacobson to think about a dreaded “down-round”, basing new fund-raising on a reduced valuation of the company. Others were eager to invest at a higher valuation or buy the company outright. By controlling the purse strings, investors have a great deal to say about the future growth of tiny endeavours like hers.
The personal touch may be useful but it is not the main way that startups stand apart from traditional firms. The most distinctive aspect of America’s vibrant startup sector is the way the ownership of companies is structured. A new breed of firms such as Uber, a taxi-hailing app, or Airbnb, a website that lists properties for short-term rental, is establishing a novel type of corporate arrangement. Investors, founders, managers and, often, employees have stakes that are delineated by carefully drawn contracts, rather than shares of the sort that trade on exchanges.
For people like Ms Jacobson these contractual arrangements provide an experience of ownership that sidesteps the concerns of public companies, by avoiding the contentious regulations and politics that surround big businesses. That should make for better-run firms if managers are fully focused on transforming a concept into a successful company.
Working this way is not easy. Conflicts between the parties arise all the time, over valuations and much else. But it allows such firms to reach pools of capital that an old-fashioned family business would not have got its hands on. Startups typically begin with savings, or money from family and friends, but then tap outside investors for seed funding through a variety of channels, including lawyers, accelerators (in essence, schools for startups) and other “angel” investors with cash to back founders with ideas. These increasingly include entrepreneurs who made money from their own startups and now invest in others. Indeed, the number of small deals has increased substantially in recent years (see chart 1).
Jerry Schlichter’s day-to-day experience untangling questions of ownership is less uplifting. Mr Schlichter is a lawyer who works not on heading off conflicts in small firms but on attempting to get better deals for investors in larger ones. He specialises in suing firms and financial institutions over their management of 401K pension accounts, through which a large number of Americans save for retirement. The money invested is automatically removed from pay cheques by employers, making workers, in the words of Leo Strine, chief justice of the Delaware Supreme Court, “forced capitalists”.
Contract and expand
As in Ms Jacobson’s world, there is a distinction between what it is to be an owner and an investor. But unlike the contract-heavy world of the startup, that distinction is not well defined and indeed in many ways it is denied. The language used, and the law applied, seems to treat such forced capitalists as owners. But they lack almost all the rights and freedoms that privilege might normally afford.
Interests are misaligned along the entire chain. An employer running a 401K selects a committee which selects an investment provider which in turn selects fund managers who select companies whose—selected—board members appoint managers. Each step is swathed in regulation that, even if well-intentioned, is shaped by lobbyists to benefit one or other of the parties rather than the system as a whole.
This layer-cake provides ample scope for mischief, as Mr Schlichter’s business attests. But even if it were to operate without added complications, the different interests of the different layers would impose large and inescapable costs. Fees, such as those charged by mutual funds, are unavoidable at every level. More insidious is the “agency problem” that arises from conflicts of interest between people who provide money and all the parties through which it travels to and from investments.
Agency problems make the idea that a company is actually owned feel almost illusory. The link between the interests of the forced capitalists in 401Ks (and federal-government pension schemes that are broadly similar) and the management of the assets they purportedly own is, at best, compromised. The experience of owning a company no longer accords with what is normally meant by ownership.
The new model of capitalism practised by Ms Jacobson and thousands of other startups is an attempt to get around the inefficiencies and costs imposed by the agency problem. The allocation of rights in a public company is unarticulated and ambiguous. Attempts to fix this through demands for more transparency and regulatory changes, such as the Sarbanes-Oxley reforms introduced in the wake of the Enron scandal, may have helped in some ways but have added to the costs and complications by adding another level of bureaucracy and more red tape.
The fragmentation of ownership is an unintended consequence of the rise and development of the public company. In the 19th century, American limits on banks’ ability to lend restricted credit, but a strong legal system supported contractual agreements, notes Robert Wright of Augustana University in South Dakota. That enabled capital to be raised through direct public offerings, which were instrumental in the early development of American industry.
Over time, mechanisms emerged to trade these direct offerings in regional and national financial markets. Stockmarkets were not the only source of finance and the joint-stock company not the only model of ownership. But big public companies became the capitalist norm.
A result of this democratisation of ownership was its dilution and the loss of one of its components—control. Shareholders lost their grip on ownership and the collective strength to manage their agents, who ran companies. In 1932 Gardiner Means and Adolf Berle argued in “The Modern Corporation and Private Property” that the outcome was that companies became akin to sovereign entities, divorced from the influence of their “owners” by retained earnings that allowed managers to invest as they chose. As companies became ever larger and more powerful, government felt the need to constrain them.
Laws and regulations have increasingly limited what companies can do, including, most recently, the amount of profits they can return to shareholders. To help owners evaluate whether to buy or sell shares, companies are forced to disclose ever more of what they are up to, but the usefulness of this information is undermined by the layer-cake of agency issues.
Individuals have been net sellers of shares for decades; in their place institutions have expanded relentlessly. Financial institutions now hold in excess of 70% of the value of shares on America’s stock exchanges (see chart 2). The leaders include such familiar names as BlackRock, Vanguard and JPMorgan Chase.
Their size gives the biggest financial firms a great deal of influence. But just as managers of a company may not find their interests aligned with those of shareholders, so the managers of these investment firms may not share the interests of their investors. This creates what John Bogle, founder of Vanguard, calls a “double-agency” society in which the assets nominally owned by millions of individuals are in the hands of a small group of corporate and investment managers whose concerns may differ from those of the masses.
Surprisingly, given America’s litigious nature, few, if any, legal actions emerged in this area until 2006 when Mr Schlichter initiated a string of cases that accuse American companies of not acting in the best interest of their employees who participate in 401K plans. His first court victory came in 2012. This year he has won settlements from Boeing and Lockheed Martin. His extensive briefs provide a window into a complex world with layer upon layer of hidden costs and conflicting interests.
The disparity between the fees some institutions charge and their performance has recently received much attention, in part because, as an issue, it is both understandable and relatively transparent. Less easily quantified bones of contention may matter as much or more. For instance, a disparity between the pressure investment firms place on companies to perform in the short term and the time-horizon of investors, which may be much longer, has given rise to complaints voiced by Mr Bogle and others about a destructive “quarterly capitalism”. And Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, has criticised investment managers as “lazy capitalists” for farming out decision on crucial shareholder votes to consultancies. Those consultancies, working as they do for many investors, are open to conflicts of interest themselves.
No fund to be with
Agency issues are particularly acute in the fastest growing part of the money-management business: the index funds which now represent a third of all the money in mutual funds. They are popular because in an efficiently priced market they are hard to outperform and can be managed at almost no cost. But they do not make their own decisions about when to buy and sell but simply seek to match the holdings of the index, such as the S&P 500, that they track. This low-maintenance approach does not generally include employing stakes to intervene in company decision-making.
Large index managers such as Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street, along with Legal & General in Britain, are acutely aware of this issue. They are responding by trying, in the words of Vanguard’s Glenn Booraem, to be “passive investors but active owners”. Each firm has created a department to consider shareholder motions and management issues, and to interact with activist investors. It is unclear how this will work or what will be considered. As their power grows, so will controversy.
As huge funds ponder the agency problem, New York’s startups are trying to do away with it. In years gone by, entrepreneurs in small businesses would have existed in an informal state. Now the terms of ownership for investors, founders and employees are being defined ever more tightly almost at the time of the creation of new businesses. Clarifying issues of ownership along with innovations in finance is encouraging the availability of capital and expertise, once harder to come by for the small business.
Visit 85 Broad Street in downtown Manhattan to see this in action. Until 2009 it was the headquarters of Goldman Sachs and at the beating heart of American finance. WeWork, a firm that houses young companies, has now taken over six of its 30 floors to house 2,000 of what the firm likes to call its members. The stream of limousines with blacked-out windows that surrounded the building during Goldman’s tenure has thinned, replaced by swarms of people in an array of startup-wear, from tartan shirts to hoodies.
WeWork has 30,000 members in over 8,000 companies in 56 locations in 17 cities. A number of other co-working spaces exist, such as the Projective, which housed early incarnations of Stripe, an online-payment system, and Uber. Demand is booming for the desks that served as launching pads for firms that now flourish. Apartments in Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Bushwick and other newly fashionable neighbourhoods are filled with startups.
In at the startup
Startups with appealing ideas and driven employees but with no contacts, business expertise or capital can receive all those through institutions such as Techstars and Dreamit Ventures, which receive thousands of applications every year. The handful that are selected get money, advice on strategy, marketing, leadership, legal help and access to investors—all functions large firms either provide internally or through pricey consultancies. In return, the nurturers receive small equity stakes and, if they have chosen the right startups and given them the right boost, a reputation that will attract further promising corporate youngsters into their orbit.
New companies have always suffered because commercial banks cannot lend to firms lacking assets and revenues, nor can the firms pay the high fees and retainers demanded by traditional investment banks and law firms. But an elaborate system has begun to emerge for both. Some will be able to get initial capital at effectively no cost from crowdfunding sites like Kickstarter and Indiegogo. An enthusiastic reception can attract bigger investors. This was the route taken by Oculus VR, a virtual-reality startup acquired in 2014 by Facebook for $2 billion.
More common is the creation from the outset of a company that can receive more usual forms of investment, albeit in a novel way. Law firms with experience in the older startup culture of the west coast, such as Cooley and Gunderson Dettmer, do a lot of business setting up such things in New York; so, perhaps unsurprisingly, do a number of law firms that are startups themselves. Spencer Yee left a career at Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett, an established law firm, to work from home on Manhattan’s Lower East Side but has since moved to a co-working space.
Lawyers in the startup world play a vastly different role from those who advise—or sue—large companies. This is in part because of the nature of their clients; often tottering between failure and success they rely more heavily on outside advice. But it is also because lawyers, in the early stages, have replaced banks as the key intermediary for financing. But most importantly they negotiate directly with investors and physically maintain the “cap structure”—the all-important legal contract noting who owns what.
The ambiguities and obfuscation of public companies contrast sharply with the new corporate structures set out by legal contracts that make the rights of both investors and owners more explicit. These legal agreements tackle two fundamental difficulties. The first is the need to mitigate agency problems. This is handled by detailed agreements that include control issues, such as the allocation of board seats. Investors usually insist that management, and often employees, own large stakes to ensure their interests are aligned to the success of the venture.
The second difficulty concerns enabling investment in the absence of an important detail: a plausible valuation. Startups are pioneering a novel answer: an agreement at the early investment stages that enables an investor to buy a proportion of the venture, but at a price determined at a subsequent round of fund-raising, typically a year or two in the future.
The website of Wilson Sonsini, a California-based law firm, offers a 47-step process for generating such contracts; it is free to use as long as you tick a box promising not to claim Wilson Sonsini is your lawyer. The growth of Mr Yee’s tiny firm—he has closed six rounds of financing and two company sales—depends on the need to negotiate each term carefully.
Typically, after initial funding, a founder will retain as much as 60% of the company, with 10-20% reserved for employees and the rest for outside investors. But terms are fluid. Each subsequent round of financing usually dilutes the original stakes by a fifth. That may sound harsh but if the firm’s value is growing fast it can transform a large stake worth nothing into a small one worth a fortune.
The more appealing the idea and the more plausible their record as mangers, the better the terms founders can demand. Annie Lamont, a venture capitalist, points to a management team which, for its first startup, raised an initial $25m and held 10% of the equity by the time the venture was sold. Its most recent startup raised $160m and the team held 18.5% of the company when it was sold. Success lets you raise more money and negotiate a better deal in subsequent rounds of financing. There is no shortage of individuals and institutions straining for a chance to invest in some of the more successful but yet-to-go-public startups like Uber and Airbnb, which have done a series of fund-raising rounds on increasingly attractive terms.
This new way of doing business does not mean there is no role for conventional finance. For all the startups that promise they will never go public—Kickstarter is one—others are keen to do so at some point. Some hope to follow the trajectory of Facebook and Google—vast enterprises, led for a time by their founders, whose shares trade on public markets.
At the moment, however, successful businesses find raising money quick and easy through private means, which gives them no incentive to rush. Using technology to create a secondary market for shares might also means that the biggest no longer need to go public because the ability to extract liquidity from private firms is becoming much simpler. For now, at least, public markets are seen less as a place to raise money and create enterprises than as a mechanism to cash out if and when the time is right.
The flow of money into the startup world is, to some extent, for want of a better alternative. Low interest rates have undermined returns from “safe” investments and encouraged speculation. It would not be surprising if the current upheaval in equity markets curtailed this flow. A similar dampening will be felt if lots of the new firms fail, or if down-rounds become common. Even so, the new structure pioneered by startups is likely to endure as long as it serves as an effective response to the flaws of the public markets. Ms Jacobson is unlikely to have visited the last baby-shower in honour of an investor.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2 things to know about the Bank of Baroda forex scam.

Six people have been arrested including employees of Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank in what is now known as the Forex scam. But the details that are coming out in media suggests that this is only the tip of a much bigger scam. More heads are likely to roll and more banks may come under the scanner of interrogating agencies.
Let's take a look at what this scam is all about.
1) The Scam and its modus operandi
Bank of Baroda (BoB) noticed some unusual transactions from its Ashok Vihar branch in Delhi, a relatively new branch which had obtained permission to accept forex transactions only in 2013. Within a year, forex business of its Delhi's Ashok Vihar branch shot up to Rs 21,529 crore.
The bank alerted government agencies who sprung into action, with the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and Enforcement Directorate (ED) working on the case. Raids were carried out over last weekend on some branches of BoB and residences of a few employees. The raids were in connection with the alleged illegal remittance of around Rs 6,172 crore to Hong Kong between 1 August 2014 and 12 August 2015.
Let’s now look at the modus operandi of these illegal remittances.
Modus Operandi
Prima facie it seems that two different types of transactions took place, but both the transactions can be related. There is nothing new in the modus operandi on one of the transactions used by money launders who try to earn a quick buck by exploiting government schemes. But it’s the second one which is intriguing.
Transaction one – exploiting export schemes
In the first transaction, a company or an individual exports goods at an higher price to their own fake companies in order to take benefit of duty drawback scheme of the government. Duty drawback is a refund given by the government to recoup the amount paid by way of custom and excise duties on the raw materials used and service tax on input services used for the manufacture of exported goods. Government uses the duty drawback scheme to promote exports.
Here is an example. Suppose a garment company sells Rs 1,000 worth of shirts for which it used Rs 500 worth of cloth and other materials. The custom duty paid on imports of the cloth or other materials or the excise duty paid on domestic purchases and service taxes paid on all inputs of services will be refunded by the government. If 20 per cent is the tax paid on its raw material, then Rs 100 (20 per cent of Rs 500) can be claimed as duty drawback.
In this case, dummy companies were opened in Hong Kong. The exporter who had foreign exchange – black money parked abroad, used these entities as clients who send the money back to India to make the transaction look genuine. Government on receiving the foreign exchange disbursed the duty drawback money to the exporter since the entire transaction was closed.
The problem, as ED points out is that the accused traders evaded custom duties, taxes and over-claim duty drawbacks to generate slush funds. ED says that the accused connived in “forming” fake companies and business entities overseas, particularly in Hong Kong by “overvaluing” the export value and subsequently claiming duty drawbacks.
Companies route their exports through these fake entities who re-sell the goods at the market price and pad it up with their own money to claim the duty drawback.
In the garment example, if the market value of the goods sold is Rs 900, then the dummy company will sell in the market and realise Rs 900 but will send Rs 1000 to its Indian exporter by adding Rs 100 on its own.
This mechanism achieves two purposes. One is the unaccounted black money residing abroad comes to India as white money and the exporter also generates extra income by duping the government through its own export incentive schemes.
Transaction two – advance remittances for imports
BoB in its communication to the stock exchanges said that between May 2014 and August 2015, 5853 outward foreign remittances of Rs 3,500 crore, mainly for the purpose of 'advance remittances for import' was recorded. Funds were sent through 38 current accounts to various overseas parties numbering to 400, mainly based in Hong Kong and one in UAE.
Advance remittances for imports are basically part payment that an importer makes to confirm his imports. Generally, after the initial advance is paid, an exporter sends the remaining amount either on receipt of the goods or after a lag, depending on the negotiation with the seller. Banks on their part have to check if the remaining amount is sent and the goods have landed by confirming it with import documentations.
The modus operandi in this transaction was that a number of current accounts were opened in the Ashok Vihar branch. As per our banking system, a remittance of up to $100,000 does not raise an alarm and is automatically cleared without supporting documents of imports. The money launderers exploited this loophole to pass under the radar. They also smartly selected commodities which are prone to cancellations on account of quality or sharp price fluctuations like fruits, pulses and rice.
2) The Players
The scam started taking place by mid 2014 when companies were getting formed in Hong Kong. One such company, Star Exim was incorporated in Hong Kong on August 1, 2014, as reported by DNA. Around the same time money transfers started from Bank of Baroda’s Ashok Vihar branch. Bank of Baroda in its internal audit report mentions that most of the transactions, totalling over Rs 6,000 crore, started on the same date as Star Exim was incorporated in Hong Kong, and continued for another year till August 12, 2015.
 
Star Exim was incorporated with a paid-up capital of $HK 10,000 and is located in an upmarket location in Hong Kong. But more interesting is the company’s owner's address. The company belongs to one Om Prakash Rungta, living in the mining town of Chaibasa in West Singhbhum district of Jharkhand. The same address in Chaibasa is also registered in the name of Fulchand Sanwarmall, a small coal trading company.
Star Exim’s office in Hong Kong is occupied by Ashok Rungta of Krsna Group Ltd, a one-stop financial advisory company.
The money, which ran into several thousands of dollars, was meant for the import of rice and cashew to India. These were in reality never imported nor any invoices generated that could authenticate the trade.
Though the existence of the ‘Advance remittance for imports’ route of transferring has been discovered, the arrests made by the investigating agencies has been in the Duty Drawback scam.
CBI arrested BoB’s Ashok Vihar branch head SK Garg and the foreign exchange (forex) head of the bank branch, Jainis Dubey, for criminal conspiracy and cheating. ED arrested Kamal Kalra, working with the foreign exchange division of HDFC Bank and three other individuals — Chandan Bhatia, Gurucharan Singh Dhawan and Sanjay Aggarwal (none of them working with  any bank).
ED says that the HDFC Bank employee Kalra was allegedly helping Bhatia and Aggarwal in remitting the amount through BoB against a commission of 30-50 paise per dollar remitted abroad.
Bhatia’s role was in forming companies in India and remiting money to companies based in Hong Kong. Dhawan, an exporter of readymade garments, helped Bhatia. Dhawan allegedly obtained duty drawback to the tune of Rs 15 crore in a short period of 6-7 months  Aggarwal was allegedly successful in sending tainted foreign remittances worth Rs 430 crore through BoB’s branch in Ashok Vihar in a short span of time.
Reports say that more arrests of similar middlemen and other operatives, including BoB employees, could take place in the near future. All the accused are alleged middlemen for at least 15 fake companies, out of the total 59 which were involved. ED is now investigating further to check the activities of the remaining suspected 44 fake firms which pumped in money to overseas locations in a similar manner.
The question is if those arrested are middlemen then who is the kingpin of this racket. Like all financial scams, there is a money trail which will ultimately lead to the beneficiary.

Nifty..

Tomorrow is the settlement so lets stay away from Nifty...
We start a fresh from friday with new figures..

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

The age of the torporation- Peak Profits

Peak profits


Big listed firms’ earnings have hit a wall of deflation and stagnation


THE idea that profits grow is embedded in the corporate world. Bosses’ pay rises if they boost earnings per share. Managers who admit their firms may shrink are viewed as cowards and taken outside and shot. Lenders assume that firms’ cashflows will grow, allowing them to repay debts. In a daft ritual, Wall Street analysts start most years by collectively forecasting that earnings per share will rise at double-digit rates. Actual growth has been lower but has still had a dazzling run, averaging 8% over the past 30 years for the S&P 500 index of big American firms. Even after the 2007-08 crisis floored the global economy, profits recovered smartly.
Perhaps that is why reality has yet to sink in: the business world is stagnating. For the second quarter in a row the sales and profits of members of the S&P 500 are expected to fall; for the three months to September they are forecast to be 3-5% lower than in the same period last year. Earnings recessions are rare, happening only about once in each decade.
The Panglossian response this time is to blame one-off factors, in this case low energy prices and a strong dollar. The latter crimps the value of foreign income once it is translated into greenbacks.
Alas, corporate sloth is a far deeper and more widespread problem than that. Consider that half of big listed American firms now have shrinking profits (see chart 1). Even excluding energy and the dollar, S&P 500 earnings growth is slow. Many bellwethers—Walmart, IBM, General Electric (GE)—face flat or declining top lines. While traditional industries, from hotels to television, grumble that technology firms are eating their lunch, even the tech industry’s earnings are flat, with the likes of Alphabet (formerly known as Google) approaching middle age. Sluggishness is everywhere. Worldwide earnings per share have stopped growing, measured in dollars. In local-currency terms sales growth has stalled in Asia, slowed in Europe and is expected to collapse in Brazil. On October 16th Nestlé, Europe’s second-most-valuable firm, said it would miss its long-standing sales target this year.
At the economy-wide level companies’ sales are closely related to nominal GDP growth (which includes inflation). So it should be no shock that firms are struggling given that deflation stalks rich countries and growth is slowing in the emerging world. After two lost decades, Japanese firms’ sales per share are still similar to the level in the 1990s. For Western firms there is also a suspicion that the methods used to crank out profits during the golden era were unsustainable. The unease is compounded by the fact that earnings are high relative to two yardsticks. S&P 500 earnings per share are 28% above their ten-year average. And in America profits are stretched relative to GDP (see chart 2).
Since the 1970s American firms have yanked on three big levers to boost profits. First, multinationals expanded abroad, with foreign earnings supplying a third or so of long-term earnings growth. Today, however, it seems that emerging economies are at the end of their 15-year boom. Second, finance was a crucial prop for profits in the two decades to 2007 (see chart 3), with the banking industry expanding rapidly and industrial firms such as GE and General Motors building huge shadow banks. The regulatory clampdown since the financial crisis means this adventure is now over.
Third, after 2007-08 firms relied heavily on pushing down the share of their profits that they paid out in wages. But now there are hints that wages are rising. On October 14th Walmart said that higher pay and training costs would lower its profits by $1.5 billion, or just under 10%, in 2017. A week later Chipotle, a fast-food chain specialising in burritos big enough to ballast a ship, blamed falling margins on labour costs. If the share of domestic gross earnings paid in wages were to rise back to the average level of the 1990s, the profits of American firms would drop by a fifth.
Faced with stagnation, the quick fix is share buy-backs, which are running at $600 billion a year in America. They are a legitimate way to return cash to investors but also artificially boost earnings per share. IBM spent $121 billion on buy-backs over the past decade, twice what it forked out on research and development. In the third quarter its sales fell by 14%, or by 1% excluding currency movements and asset disposals. Big Blue should have invested more in its own business. Walmart spent $60 billion on buy-backs even as it fell far behind Amazon in e-commerce.
A radical option is to embrace torpor. The Brazilian investment firm 3G has become a specialist in buying mature firms and cutting what it claims is fat. Sales at its most recent target, Kraft, are falling at a rate of 5% a year. 3G is the force behind the proposed $120 billion takeover of the brewer SABMiller by AB Inbev. Inbev’s volumes are shrinking at a rate of 2%. In America the telecoms, cable and health-insurance industries are consolidating. The aim is to create stodgy oligopolies.
For business as a whole profit margins may eventually erode as wages rise. Regardless of whether that happens, though, most firms will still be faced with static top lines. Relative to sales and assets, capital investment in America has at least been steady and the shift of production to China and technological changes may mean the “natural” rate of investment firms need has fallen. But there is little doubt that a splurge in capital spending is necessary to get big companies growing again.
For all their obsession with growth, big listed firms appear paralysed. They long to expand, yet also want to protect peak profits, restrain wages and investment, buy back shares and hold armfuls of excess cash on their balance-sheets. What might make sense at the firm level causes stagnation across the economy, which in turn guarantees firms will stagnate. How many big companies will summon the strength of will to escape this exquisite trap?