About Me

My photo
An Investor and counsellor in Financial Market

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Six Charts Show Six Months of Economic Unraveling for Greece

Greece was in the early stage of an economic recovery when then-Prime Minister Antonis Samaras called a vote for a new president. The unraveling that followed shows just how fragile that recovery was.
Investors were the first to run for the hills, anticipating that the political stand-off would end in elections that would usher in Alexis Tsipras's anti-austerity Syriza party, and a confrontation with the country's bailout creditors.
Savers were not far behind, and with the economy drained of liquidity, Greece was officially back in recession by the end of March.


Already shorn of bond market access as Samaras's own efforts to seal deal to release more bailout funds floundered, the rout killed any lingering hopes that Greece could stand alone.
The point was not lost on Greeks with deposits at the country's banks. With savings fleeing, so dependence on the European Central Bank for funding rose, tightening creditors' grip on Tsipras's government after he replaced Samaras in January.


"We've got massive capital outflow, we've got a huge debt that's not sustainable, we've got a recession and there's no investment," said Gianluca Ziglio, a fixed-income strategist at Sunrise Brokers LLP. "It's a tragic situation from all points of view."


Still, Tsipras's government has held back on agreeing terms demanded by creditors longer than many anticipated. After the initial marking rout six months ago rout, see-sawing sentiment on whether or not a deal will be agreed has led to wild swings in theAthens Stock Exchange.


"The more time passes, the deeper is Greece descending into a costly renewed recession and the harder it will be for Greece to get a good deal," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said in a note to clients on Wednesday. "Fortunately, contagion risks remain well under control."

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.